More thoughts about the Palestine/Israel war

I still have no good theory about this war, but I do have some observations and questions. This is thus a so-called stream-of-consciousness post.

1. This kind of operations -as performed by Hamas- takes a lot of preparation. Probably a year or more. But even at the very minimum it would take 6 months. Realistically though, it would be upwards from 1 year.

2. Hamas knew they would be quite unable to defeat the Israelis.

3. Hamas probably only intended to create a severe shock to Israel.

4. Hamas knew how Israel would respond, they were -imo- aiming for a maximum response.

5. Hamas targeted -among others- munitions. Ammunition is becoming scarce due to the war in the Ukraine. To be sure, there is still enough around, but countries are now starting to sit on their own stocks and are unwilling to share.

6. Israel now sucks up all attention, the Ukraine has disappeared from the front pages.

7. This new war would seem beneficial to the Russians, but given the amount of time necessary for its preparation, it would seem rather unlikely that Russia is somehow involved. After all, in war the opponent always has a say, and that makes it impossible to prepare that far ahead.

Thoughts:

1. Israels secret service (Mossad) must have known about this. They may have been unaware of its timing or its magnitude, but there must have been signals that something was up. If the Mossad failed to judge the signals, or if it wanted this to happen for its own reasons I do not know. There is an argument to be made that the Mossad wanted this to happen, now. The argument goes as follows: The might of the US army is clearly waning, and in addition to the Ukrainian war, the USA seems itching to start a war over Taiwan. Two simultaneous (or even sequential) wars would possibly break the US army. Such that the US would be incapable to aid Israel in a future war with Iran. The Mossad might have surmised that it would be better to trigger a US/Iranian war before the US triggers a war over Taiwan.

2. While Israeli influence in the EU is strong, there is also definite support for the Palestinians on the left side of the political spectrum. I.e. the side that is in power now. This will create stress in the US/EU relationship.

3. In most European capital cities the main religion is Muslim, or at least its the second biggest. If European governments insist on helping Israel, this could be quite interesting to watch (if you don’t live in such a capital city). This wil equally apply when the Israeli use excessive force in Gaza.

4. The Muslim countries around Israel will have a difficult time keeping their populations quiet & under control when the Palestinians in Gaza are dis proportionally attacked by Israel, unless they take an active stand in the conflict. Thinking of Egypt, if Egypt does not do anything, the Muslim brotherhood will find a lot more support in the population. Potentially creating problems for the Egyptian government.

5. At this point in time, the “energy” seems to be leaving the conflict. Especially on the Israeli side. Maybe this will all settle down to ‘the usual stuff?’. Still an excursion into Gaza by the Israeli army is to be expected.