Next phase in Ukraine.

In the light of the new offensive in the Kharkiv region I have to revise my opinion that I expressed only two posts ago. Not by much though, just the scale on which the previous post was made seems to be off.

Up to recently the RuAF were mostly trying to destroy the AFU. Their preferred way was to create a semi encirclement of an important area, but leave a gap so the AFU was able to reinforce the troops in the semi-encirclement. The so-called meat-grinders.

Meat grinders require two different thing from each side: One side has to constrain itself not to go on the offensive but be prepared to slog it out, while the other side has to be willing to keep on sending troops and material to replace their troops lost in the meat-grinder.

To create meat-grinders, you need to have a more or less stable front. That way the AFU could feel rather secure and was able to feed more men and material into them.

Opening another front is in direct opposition to the meat-grinder approach. Now the AFU has to spread out its forces and can no longer support their side of the meat-grinders.

Hence the new front signals a new phase in the SMO where the RuAF abandons the explicit creation of meat-grinders. (The flow of war may create meat-grinders even without intention by either side)

Now the main focus is likely to be on manoeuvre warfare where the goal is to get the opponent running. And to collapse his front wherever he thinks he has an opportunity to create a defense line. I.e to conquer area.

A front is of course never homogeneous, there will be places where the AFU can mount a good defense and there will be places where the defense is rather poor. I suspect that from here on out, the RuAF will keep pressure on the places where the AFU is strong, but will not try to tackle these positions head-on, nor will they try to encircle these locally. Instead they will prefer to break through in weak spots, and collapse support for the strong points from further behind.

It is quite possible that the breakthrough on Ocheretyne is a first example of a weak point that is being exploited.

What more to expect?

An area of interest is the Kupiansk front, which so far seems to have been a strong point of the AFU. The new front seems to be in a perfect place to interrupt the supply to the AFU side of the Kupiansk front. Besides, Kupiansk being the closest to the new front, is the most obvious place to draw troops from to strengthen the AFU defense on the new front.

Another thing to watch for is the opening of yet another front. After all if two fronts are thinning out the AFU, opening yet another could bring about the collapse of the AFU even sooner.