Super spike - part 2
The super spike referenced in the previous post has gained quite some attention. It als also grown considerably and widened as well. So lets take another look at it.
First off, the area we see in the maps of several bloggers and youtubers are not trustworthy. That is they neither detail the outward reach nor should they be considered area’s of total control. It is very likely that the RuAF has only small units in the field and that the area’s between these fields is neither controlled by the RuAF nor the AFU. They are “grey zones”. If either side tries to move soldiers in there, there is a high risk of detection and attack.
Consider that this infiltration operation is very similar to earlier infiltrations via pipelines. It will take some time to solidify the hold on this area, and very likely there will be some tactical retreats as well. No sense in trying to hold on to area’s that are indefensible.
As such, I expect Russia to use the coming days to grow their hold on already occupied area and move in more troops and create defensive positions between the pockets of control.
The Ukraine otoh has its work cut out, but there are two possible approaches they could take. If they have a lot of reserves (soldiers) they should surround the incursion and establish a stable front line before trying to dislodge the RuAF. Much like Russia did in Kursk.
If they don’t have enough men, they must make the most of the men they have, and that means counterattacks. To create a defense line, they need upwards of 5000 men. But for counterattacks 500 are sufficient. The counter attack is then meant to throw the Russians in disarray, cut off supply lines and then deal with each cut-off group individually.
However, such counterattacks are unlikely to succeed. Mostly because the RuAF is likely only present in small groups that are supplied by drones. A counterattack would tie down groups of AFU soldiers around isolated RuAF groups. Probably in a 10:1 ration. I.e. 10 AUF soldiers for every surrounded RuAF soldier. These AFU units would then be taken out one by one by drones, artillery and air-attacks.
It would halt the expansion of the RuAF controlled area and look successful in the first week or two. Then when their troops are whittled down a renewed breakthrough of Russian units would occur, and they would rapidly evict/conquer the Ukrainian troops.
Given the current situation, the counter-attack approach is probably the one that will be chosen. It will be very costly for the Ukraine, and hasten the final collapse. And indeed as I re-edit this article, counterattacks have happened and are happening. It will be very instructive to see how these succeed, or not.
If they fail and do not result in the quick take-back of the grey zones, then it is time to think about a total collapse of the AFU in the Donbas. How when and where remains to be seen, but if the AFU relocated front line troops to the Pokrovsk area and these troops were unsuccessful, then the remaining soldiers on other places in the front will be over-matched by a huge margin and a rapid collapse becomes a very real possibility.