The AFU collapse is speeding up
I have long waited with this title, but it probably time to call it now.
The AFU might very well be at an infliction point right now. Lets examine why:
A few weeks ago the RuAF broke through using infiltration tactics to the north of Pokrovsk. Also called the bunny ears breakthrough.
The AUF responded by redeploying troops to the area in an attempt to stop and push back this attack.
There was a kind of black out during several weeks on the fighting in this area. This in itself was a bad sign for the AFU. Had they had the strength, they would have cut off and pushed back the RuAF and of course published this widely.
It is even rumored that Sirsky himself took control of this battle.
The RuAF responded by reinforcing the troops in the area, and as now is becoming clear is rolling back the initial success of the AFU counter attacks. Right now, it cannot be denied that the RuAF is winning this battle. And given that Sirsky is known for his ruthless never-mind-the-losses approach, it stands to reason that this loss has been very costly. The AUF might have lost its stop-gap units in this fight.
This is further supported by the fact that all the time bunny-ears battle was raging the RuAF also started a push along front in east Zaporizhzhia. And has been booking steady progress there. Even after the AFU reportedly reinforced its troops there.
Now the RuAF have redeployed troops from Pokrovsk to the east Zaporizhzhia. But at the same time the RuAF has also started booking more successes in Pokrovsk itself. The best explanation for this is probably that the AFU has been exhausted in the Pokrovsk area.
All the time the RuAF has also been steadily advancing in the other parts of the front (Siversk, Lyman, Kupiansk, Vovchansk). This indicates that also on these other fronts the AFU is out of reserves and has to make do with what it has left.
And the coup the grace seems to be happening around Pokrovsk as well: there is now a cauldron forming that may trap hundreds if not thousands of AFU troops.
Add to this the increasing drone attacks of Russia on the Ukrainian infrastructure that is creating energy problems all over the Ukraine and impeding the possibilities of the AFU to redeploy troops quickly.
We are getting clear indications that the Russia drone superiority has reached levels that are both awe inspiring as well as incredibly frighting. It is devastating the Ukrainian abilities to supply the front line.
This last point is confirmed as even Zelensky has now tried to call for a stop to the drone war.
The above sequence is important for a reason: up to now, the AFU had elite stop-gap units that were shuttled around the front to stop breakthroughs. But the bunny-ears breakthrough is the last breakthrough they have been used. The east-Zaphorizhzhia breakthrough has not seen the deployment of these units with any significant results. Suggesting very strongly that these unit no longer exist in effective numbers.
There is one more thing that hints at things to come: Russia is not using it armor even as the production of it has increased. Combine this with rumors that Russia is close to mass producing a definite answer to the drone problem, and one can be forgiven to think that Russia is waiting to equip its armor with this latest anti-drone equipment before deploying it.
If this analysis is correct, then the Ukraine is on the eve of a huge crisis.