Ukraine - where are we now?
It has been a while, and I would like to present my current take on the conflict.
First off, many observers still view the SMO in classical western terms: Take and hold territory. Take and hold is (was?) typical western because the dominance of the west over the rest of the world in military terms was so high. Russians -so it seems to me- take another approach: demonstrate power (by destroying the other’s army) and then go to the negotiation table to settle on who gets what.
This has an impact on how the war is fought: the western analysts insist on seeing the battle field as “how do I take more territory”, which area’s must be taken and defended in order to be able to take more territory afterwards.
Russia seem to take a different approach: as long as the opponent is willing to throw people against them, they sit and destroy. Only when the opponent is no longer willing to send new troops against them, they advance. Until of course they meet resistance again. Then they replay the same scenario.
So far this approach has benefited the Russians in the Ukraine.
But we might be getting on to a bifurcation point: it may be time for the Russian to take territory in order to end the war quickly. Quickly being quite relative of course. In this case, I would say about half a year or maybe a few months more.
The reason is that -imo- the Russians may have underestimated the willingness of the west to sacrifice Ukrainians. And -very importantly- the seemingly willingness of the west to switch to Romanians and Poles after they have burned through the available Ukrainian troops.
Especially the Poles are at risk. And the Poles have a big advantage over the Ukrainians: they are trained on western NATO equipment. It is next to impossible to send western material to the Ukraine since the Ukrainians do not have the necessary experience. Poles however do have this experience. And -most of all- can still be trained on western material.
We already know that Poles are on the front, but they are receiving high losses and may be wanting to use their own equipment from ‘back home’ to even out the battlefield. Hence if anyone, its most likely that the Poles will be wanting to to send personnel and equipment over to the Ukraine. Provided of course that the rest of the west carries the monetary costs.
That seems to be the current finagling that is going on. The Poles would like the Germans to give tanks to the Ukraine that could then be manned with Poles to support the Poles already on the front. (At least this is my interpretation)
If this is the way the neocons (NATO) want to take the war, then the Russians have a problem. As there can be little doubt that when the Russians have to fight NATO equipment with trained personnel they will encounter much higher losses than currently against the Ukrainians.
A scenario like the above is likely still half a year -or more- out. The Russians thus have a window of opportunity: go and do what they have to do now! And be finished before the Poles (and others) can arrive on the front in numbers that cause problems.
To be sure, the Russians would win, even when the Ukrainian army were replaced by an all-NATO army. It’s just that the cost of winning would be much higher.
For that reason alone, it would seem to me that the Russians will start a big offensive soon. What kind of offensive is still a question, and much speculation abounds. While “big arrow” offensives are possible, they are risky. A much safer option is to simply increase pressure all along the front. If the Ukrainians are close to a breaking point then this will likely be too much for them. The Russians may then brake through at several points. Then they can develop their offensive opportunistically anywhere they see fit.